We may not live close together but that does not mean that we can't be close.
A true economist would have never predicted anything they would have simply answered the question with "it depends" that is why we are never wrong we just simply never give an answer.
Economists are certainly a strange breed. They look smart with all their high flaluten language but when you really listen, they haven't really said anything - it just sounds like they have. People in education are similar - always talking but seldom listening.
Oh Wes . . .
The thing about economics is that it depends on people and people do not always act in the most logical way. For this reason there is no real way to predict how people will react.